Why Am I Writing This?
First off... I can't sleep. It's not due to fear of the market, it's the non-stop idea flow about how this is going to play out. The only way to clear my mind is to write it all out so I don't have to think about it.
Second, this is an extraordinary time in the market. By many measures, it's the worst selloff we've ever seen. It's 2008-level bad.
And one regret I had in 2007-2009 was not writing down all my thoughts. So I'm doing that now, so I can go back and see how wrong I was or if there was a change in my process that drastically increased my results.
Technically I should be journaling like this all the time, but it incredibly valuable volatile markets.
All of these posts and videos will not be edited after the fact... you'll see them, right or wrong, warts and all.
My COVID Posts
My COVID Videos
My Crystal Ball
I'm also predicting things, not as an ego exercise to feel right, but to put a line in the sand to say "this is what I was thinking." Trading and manging options are VERY different than making market calls, yet it's useful to have a line in the sand to say "this is where I was right" or "lol that aged like milk."
My Current Predictions
- The market will not retest its lows.
- The economy recovery will be Y shaped
- The market will bottom before US COVID numbers top out.
- The market will bottom before the growth of COVID numbers decreases.
- NS @ 8.43
- PW @ 8.40
- NET @ 20
- AKAM @ 85
- DLR @ 115
- Bearish TVIX in the 900s