Perception and Bias Discretionary technical analysis often gets a bad rap. It goes back to ways we can know things, and whether humans can distinguish actionable patterns in the market or whether we are searching for signal in what is a bunch of random-walk noise. If you've read any of my posts, odds are you
Over the past few weeks there's been a swath of news that has positively impacted the equities market. Earnings reports, fed news, and BoJ interventions have led the risk-on trade higher, and the major market indexes have broken out. This breakout, however, seems to have moved much faster than usual. In fact, we've seen a
I absolutely love the timing of hedging questions. When the market has a day like it did last week, I'll start getting emails trickling into my inbox about the best way to protect against a drop in a portfolio. Or how to repair a stock or option strategy when the market stopped being so easy.
After equities got Egypped, it seems that the markets are back to the same intraday snoozefest that has occurred over the past few months. But can we expect any sort of turnaround in volatility? Let's take a look. Our Volatility Chart We're going to look at the SPY average true range (ATR) and the 20-day
Here's a chart of a few of the intermediate-term tops in the market over the past 2 years. Notice anything? All of them had their highs tested at least once, and many made new marginal highs in which we saw a strong reversal. This tells me that if you want to be bearish on the
It hurts, doesn't it? You stare at your trading screen, hilariously underinvested, in a market that won't pullback. So here you sit, hair slightly grayer, with your brokerage account open-- stuck between a rock and a hard place. Do you go ahead and load up and risk a pullback, or continue to sit on your