What a grind higher. The QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) has rallied about 5% since the beginning of the year. A slow, steady march higher as entirely too many people got stuck leaning the wrong way as the market broke out to new all time highs. And what have we seen to start 2020? Political risk.
Back in August, we saw an absolute collapse in yields. Remember, when yields tank, TLT runs higher... And if the market is expecting deflation to grip the markets, it will get priced in by a spike in TLT. Strongest move we'd seen in years. Here was the full video of why I thought TLT was
Let's play a game. Say I have a coin, and you bet heads or tails. If you guess right, you win $1. If you guess wrong, you lose $1. This is basically a "breakeven system." After all, with 50% odds, it's going to be a wash. Yet what if the coin wasn't fair? What if
Robinhood was the catalyst. An upstart broker targeting a younger demographic with the promise of "free" trading... on stock and options. Personally, I thought it was a gimmick and not sustainable. Looks like I was wrong. Last week there was a "race to zero" with the major brokerages -- SCHW, ETFC, AMTD, IBKR. Looks like
What do we know when we start an iron condor trade? Let's take a look at the two of the option greeks. First... Delta. I've talked about this plenty of times, but iron condors are not "market neutral" trades. They start off slightly bearish. The other greek you have is vega. This is related to
Good Lord... the financial markets have a short memory. LESS THAN A MONTH AGO, the long bond went parabolic. TLT ran up nearly 10% in 10 days. Largest rally since the Fiscal Cliff play in 2011. When TLT goes up, it means that rates went down. And rates got low... stupid low... it felt like