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The 6-Month Turnaround for NBG

April 9, 2014 By Steven Place

News is floating out this morning that Greece will be having a debt offering.

It's the first long term debt to come out since the bailout a few years back.

What are the terms?

5 year duration, running about 5%. Not bad.

And it appears to be oversubscribed. Lots of investors want in.

I'm not a bond guy. But when I see risk appetite for something like this, I start to look for proxies.

An example would be GREK - which is an ETF that looks at companies in Greece. But its top holdings are a Coke subsidary, a telecom, and a sports bookie. Not a fan.

The best bet here for a proxy is going to be NBG - National Bank of Greece.

Here's the chart:

nbg

What we've got here is a massive 6 month base. Measured move off the breakout is around 2 points, which isn't bad off a stock trading in the 5's.

This is one of those opportunities where there is news driven risk combined with a solid technical pattern. If the stock reclaims the 6's then the buyers will be solidly in control. This thesis is wrong if we lose about 5.25.

 

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