A new chart from BAC/MER research suggests a technical breakout on the S&P, with an expected move to 2300.

Now long term projections (especially based off technical patterns) always seem to be a little suspect.

Remember when we had the massive double top pattern in 2009 with a projected move to 400 on the S&P? That didn't pan out.

But 2300, given the right timeframe, can be a pretty simple target to hit.

The current YTD returns for the S&P stands around 25%. That's a pretty big move-- certainly assissted by central bank liquidity.

But on average, the S&P returns about 10%, with dividends included.

Let's round down to 8%, and see where that puts us assuming perfect market conditions.

Given a current price of 1795, an 8% return puts us at **1938** in a year.

In 2 years we're at **2093**.

Then 2261.

By year 4 we're at 2442, which surpasses their target.

Keep in mind, this is assuming **normal market conditions**. If the Fed continues their voodoo (which I don't agree with and I think will end badly) then returns could be skewed further.

As an options trader, I tend towards more mean reversion than trend. But it's an interesting thought to consider-- given simple average market conditions, what seems like a stretch target is just a run of the mill 4-year market rally.