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Our Treasury Trade

September 30, 2009 By Steven Place

{+++}

Been waiting for this trade, I think now's the right time to execute it.

TLT

Trade Rationale: Probably hit the low for the year at 87, nice rally up to the declining 200DMA. I'm bearish, but there's a possibility we can rally back into the range seen from Jan - Mar.

Trade Strategy: SELL -3 1/2 BACKRATIO TLT 100 NOV 09 100/101 CALL @.90 LMT

This has some significant short exposure as price rises from the negative gamma. We wil lmake the most money at 101, but if it falls off we make money on the downside. This is a moderately bearish play on TLT but we have room for some upside.

Risk Management: Stop above the break of the 1Q09 range at 104.5, so initial risk of 778.

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