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The 6-Month Turnaround for NBG

News is floating out this morning that Greece will be having a debt offering.

It's the first long term debt to come out since the bailout a few years back.

What are the terms?

5 year duration, running about 5%. Not bad.

And it appears to be oversubscribed. Lots of investors want in.

I'm not a bond guy. But when I see risk appetite for something like this, I start to look for proxies.

An example would be GREK - which is an ETF that looks at companies in Greece. But its top holdings are a Coke subsidary, a telecom, and a sports bookie. Not a fan.

The best bet here for a proxy is going to be NBG - National Bank of Greece.

Here's the chart:

nbg

What we've got here is a massive 6 month base. Measured move off the breakout is around 2 points, which isn't bad off a stock trading in the 5's.

This is one of those opportunities where there is news driven risk combined with a solid technical pattern. If the stock reclaims the 6's then the buyers will be solidly in control. This thesis is wrong if we lose about 5.25.

 

by Steven Place

Steven Place is the founder and head trader at investingwithoptions.com/