At the time of this post, we're seeing $USO break down, while $OIH is still holding strong... what gives?
We've got a couple things going on with respect to oil market structure. I don't have the full scope of the theme knocked down yet, but essentially there is a glut of supply coming into the Cushing, OK facility, and that's the price of /CL futures. But if you look at the price action of Brent crude, it's holding up pretty well.
Let's have a look at the chart:
It seems the spread after basing out all last year has really started to break out, and is getting a little parabolic. I don't know whether this can be seen as a proxy for global growth, but if you look at a chart of some refiners you will see very similar price action.. $VLO and $WNR come to mind.