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Seasonal Pivots in Long Term Bonds

I've shown this chart before, and I feel that it's time for another look. This is a weekly chart of TLT, the etf that tracks 20 year treasuries.

All the green shaded areas are strong pivot levels. These pivots just so happen to be during the summer. This is a seasonal pivot. Over the past 7 times, only 1 has been a bearish pivot. We still *technically* have an uptrend so I am expecting the pivot to come sometime during the summer. I know many are calling to an end of the bond bull market, but I feel we'll be in a longer term distributive phase before we begin the downturn.

by Steven Place

Steven Place is the founder and head trader at